Wednesday, December 5th 2012 - 12:06:57 am

Daily Stock Picks Report Archive

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The Daily Stock Report for 2008-08-20
The Daily Stock Report for 2008-08-19
The Daily Stock Report for 2008-08-18
The Daily Stock Report for 2008-08-17
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The Daily Stock Report for 2008-07-17
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The Daily Stock Report for 2008-07-14
The Daily Stock Report for 2008-07-13
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The Daily Stock Report for 2008-07-09
The Daily Stock Report for 2008-07-08
The Daily Stock Report for 2008-07-07

The Daily Stock Report     www.TradeStocksAmerica.com 

December 30, 2008, Tuesday Evening                                      

There is still nothing to get too excited yet about what has happened this week except to say we haven’t renewed heavy selling yet as we saw often in the last 3 months.  Time will tell how the stock market acts next week when all the players return.

Low float stocks (definition on website) often get a lot of speculation around holidays when the market is one-sided and tilted towards the day traders and speculators.  Pharmaceuticals, biotechs, small cap stocks, and previously ignored sectors get the attention.  Keep on the look out for a sector move that has been idle or on the sideline for months (well, many stocks are on the sideline, duh, right?).

It is nice to see the market stabilize, the VIX, Volatility index drop, and stocks move up but it isn’t a reliable trend yet consider the stock market is essentially on vacation.  REPEAT:  Whatever direction the market takes next Monday should be noted because it often sets the tone for the direction of the stock market.

REPEAT from yesterday:  There is a lot of doom and gloom in the overall investor sentiment about the economy and but that is often mismatched with how stock prices actually act.  In general, the odds are starting to be on the side of the intermediate long positions as well as long swing trades and against the short sellers.  The goal now is to look for some excellent stocks on a fundamental basis (earnings, growth, PE, etc) and match them up with the technical indicators to consider buying long. 

There is a lot of opportunity to make money in stocks this next year, especially in the next 6 months, both long and short.  In other words, don’t let the financial media get you depressed, there is going to be excellent opportunity in stocks.  Make sure you study master the chart set-up and interpretation of them from The Wizard Training Course.

Biotechs are getting their typical holiday excitement.  Most of these are "one-day wonders" that peak in the morning and head down.  Be very careful and have very small positions only to learn.  Use 3 minute charts for these and switch between 3, 5 and 15 minute charts for your buy and sell signals but mostly stay on the 3 and 5 min.

Remember ROH, Rohm & Haas?  This was the rumor that DOW Chemical couldn’t complete the deal.  Look at the daily chart on this.  It is interesting to learn from but too late to do anything about it.

Intermediate Trade Positions:   New ideas:  AAPL, Apple Computer is going through a consolidation-bottoming process.  Old rumor recirculating about Steve Jobs health;  WalMart started selling iPhones this week.  Worth small long position.

RIMM, Research in Motion.  Good entry point for long intermediate position. 

TSN, Tyson Foods.  Chicken ban lifted by Mexico.  The daily chart looks excellent although we are a little to the party.

MA, Mastercard Int’l starting to turn positive.  Ready for a small long position.

CNO, Conseco is an insurance company that has had a checkered past.  We are approaching this long intermediate trade based on its good technical daily chart.  This is a speculative long purchase but could continuing moving up

Swing Trades:   

Day Traders/Intraday stock ideas:   Intraday trades should be put on hold until first week of January when all professional managers and traders move back into the market next week.

Concluding thoughts:  Should be a slow week in volume and volatility.  Reliability won’t be high in reading the market this week.  Market will be skewed as few people trade in stock market except small individual investors, traders, and speculators.

Ticker Symbol                       Type               Notes                                      Buy Date        Paid    Target

HWAY,  Healthways       LONG- INT        Health sector does well in bad markets.  12-29-08            11.04    14-15

OMX, Office Max          LONG               Good tech chart; bad fundamentals.      Wait and watch

VRX, Valeant Pharma    LONG-INT         Good tech chart; improving financials    12-29-08            22         ?

K, Kellog                      LONG-INT         Bottoming now; 3.1% div yield.              12-29-08            42.39    47

IBM                              LONG-INT         Should start heading up.                        12-29-08            81.72    92

UTX, United Tech          LONG-INT         3% dividend; 8% potential profit                        12-29-08            50.92    55

LLL, Level 3                 LONG-INT         Stochastics still pointing downward        12-30-08            70.18    80-81

USO, US Oil Fund ETF  LONG-INT         Will move with oil prices.                       12-29-08            30.43    50-55

XOM, Exxon Mobile      LONG-INT         2% div, strong on falling oil prices         12-29-08            78.28    87-88

CVX, Chevron Texaco   LONG-INT         3.6% div, strong on falling oil prices      12-29-08            71.25    85

COP, Conoco Phillips    LONG-INT         3.9% div. strong on falling oil prices.     12-29-08            49.51    58-59

BP, British Petroleum    LONG-INT         7.6% dividend safe. Weakest oil stocks  12-29-09            45         51

FXI, Xinhua 25 ETF       LONG               Made up of Chinese stocks                   12-30-08            28.19    40?

PTR, PetroChina           LONG               Largest oil company in China.                12-30-08            86.72    106      

BAC, Bank of America   LONG SWING   Waiting for better buy signal.                 Wait and watch

RMBS, Rambus            SHORT-INT       Start with small opening short positions Watch & wait                 10

PLD, Prologis               SHORT-INT       Waiting for new year’s trading trend        Wait and watch 

DHI, D.R. Horton           SHORT-INT       Wait for rebound for better price                        Wait and watch

TOL, Toll Brothers         SHORT-INT       Wait for rebound for better price                        Wait and watch

KBH, KB Homes           SHORT-INT       Wait for rebound for better price                        Wait and watch

PHM, Pulte Homes        SHORT-INT       Wait for rebound for better price                        Wait and watch

LEN, Lennar                  SHORT-INT       Wait for rebound for better price                        Wait and watch

AAPL, Apple Cmptr       LONG-INT         Ready for long purchase                       12-31-08                        100

RIMM, Research Mot.    LONG-INT         Ready for long purchase                       12-31-08                        mid 50s

CNO, Conseco              LONG-INT         Good chart; speculative long purchase   12-31-08                        5

SWING: 2-7 days          INT: Intermediate term position 8 days to several months.           Paid:  price paid on opening long position or price sold on short position. Target is price we hope to obtain on the trade.

NOTESIf you happen to be long in airline stocks you might consider selling off your stocks gradually.  When oil takes a move upward and starts at least some intermediate rally, airline stocks are going to take a hit.  Look at ALK, Alaska Airlines, this has no business continuing up.  This is not a shortable stock or idea in this sector, just a note to seriously consider selling the airlines.

Make sure you have stop losses; you decide what you are willing to take for a loss but consider a wider stop loss (5-7%) as we just started going long these intermediate positions.  If or when these stocks move upward in a substantial or quick way, then tighten your trailing stop losses.

Thoughts:  Best odds only, be decisive, aggressive, mentally flexible, stay in position size, don’t overtrade and wait a little longer to buy and wait a little longer to sell.  You will find that will make you more money on your trades.  Trade what you see, not what you hope for.

Don’t trade unless the setup is there for you, then use the charts to tell you when the odds are heavily in your favor.  I recommend wide stop losses when using this technique otherwise you get stopped out frequently which is expensive, frustrating and distracts you from the bigger picture of making a successful trade.  Don’t force anything to work for you tomorrow, let the setups develop and then take advantage of that.  Be patient the next couple of days.  Stay in position sizes without letting any intraday trade represent more than 10-15% of your total account value.  As you build your account, your position size percentage should get smaller and smaller to lower your risk.

Have a great day and I’ll talk to you Thursday night. 

Mitch King

www.TradeStocksAmerica.com

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Mitch King is the founder of TradeStocksAmerica.com.  All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. All material represents the opinions of Mitch King. Investment recommendations may change without notice and readers are urged to check with their investment counselors before making any investment decisions. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. Mitch King and/or the staff at TradeStocksAmerica.com may or may not have investments in any stocks cited above before or after this newsletter is prepared. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice.

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