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The Daily Stock Picks Newsletter                                                                        Mitch King

November 5, 2008 Wednesday Evening                                                                                                                                    www.TradeStocksAmerica.com

Well, here we go again.  The European markets sold off last night and spread to the US markets.  The Dow 30 opened down about 140 points and we saw a big rebound in stocks which peaked out at about 730am Pacific Time.   It was the kind of rebound that intraday traders look for to buy stocks long for an intraday trade and most stocks gave us 4-5% profit potentials today on the long side and then immediately gave us a 6-7% trade on the short side in the next hour.  The Dow30 ended down 486 points which is over 5% and the NASDAQ Composite was down 5.5%.  And tonight Asian markets are down hard again with Tokyo down over 6%, Hong Kong down 6.6% and Shanghai market reaching a 2 year low.  It seems highly likely that the US markets will be down again at the open, drop more after the open and then present us with a similar good intraday long trade like we saw with many stocks today. 

The 485 point drop in the Dow30 today was more typical of recent weeks but we have had a nice run for 5-6 days since October 28th.  The odds are the markets will drift lower and possibly have some more down days like today with the fear and worries returning about the recession, Obama's economic plans for the country, and possibly the previous worries creeping in again from credit crunch and banking crisis.  I really don't see a catalyst now to see a strong uptrend resume for at least a few days or more like the track we were on for 6 days.

It is very rare that I write you on The Daily Stock Picks Newsletter but I wrote you an email this morning at 712am Pacific time, suggesting that you sell more of your long positions or at least tighten up you're your trailing stop losses.  After 5-6 up days and 15-40% gains with most stocks (58-130% with the insurance stocks) I knew there could be a long drop below so that is why I made a rare warning.  The tell tale sign was the big drop in 125 stocks I have on my watch list and the rebound attempt that followed.  I used that rebound to short stocks that I was looking to short with the solar stocks as my first group to short.  I shorted SOLF, FSLR and LDK (because they were available to short) at about 715am to 730am Pacific time.  These stock picks on the short side gave profits of over 15% today all the way to the end where I covered most of that position except SOLF.  I'll try again early tomorrow morning with this group as well as looking for the ag-chemical stocks (MOS, MON, AGU, POT), coal (FCL, ACI), a couple of oil and gas stocks (GMXR, EOG) and possibly the insurance companies (HIG, PRU, MET).

So we won't be overshooting on the upside on this stock run we just had.  I am thinking the market drifts lower for a couple of days, consolidates for a while (sideways with a negative bias) before making an attempt at another run.  That was the longest swing trade position that worked and that lasted 5 or 6 trading days.  So for now, the fear returns and greed goes back into the closet. 

The VIX, Volatility Index moved back up 14.3% today to close at 54.56.  Another day and a half of down markets could bring the VIX back up to the mid 60s.

Intermediate Trade Positions:  It will take some weeks or possibly into late December or January to gain footing to see stocks move into higher ground. 

Swing Trades:  Any overnight swing trades that are initiated at or near the high point tomorrow should be one or possibly two nights, depending upon how the market acts.  Meaning, if the stock market is down and stays generally negative, that would be a confirmation to hold overnight with the idea that stocks gap down further-and I think there is enough room for stocks to drop down further for a couple more days and then look for some sort of substantial bounce on Friday.   That is a likely scenario I am looking for but if you wanted to play it safe and take smaller profits, it is easier to sleep at night and clear all stock positions by the day's end.

Day Traders/Intraday stock ideas:   The drop and pop pattern that we have been using on the intraday trades worked extremely well this morning and I I am looking for a repeat pattern tomorrow.  Virtually every stock I follow had an excellent pop and drop pattern for intraday trades from the financials, oil and gas, metals and mining, steel, copper, solar stocks but the housing stocks had a different pattern.  I do not trade housing stocks either as swing or intraday trades.  The housing stocks aren't good trading stocks and there are much better stocks to be using this technique with.   

Remember to wait for a big drop and if this doesn't happen, shy away from this idea and either look for another stock chart that presents a good setup.  Don't trade unless the setup is there for you, then use the charts to tell you when the odds are heavily in your favor.  I recommend wide stop losses when using this technique otherwise you get stopped out frequently which is expensive, frustrating and distracts you from the bigger picture of making a successful trade.

Have a great day and I'll talk to you tomorrow.

Mitch King

www.TradeStocksAmerica.com

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Mitch King is the founder of TradeStocksAmerica.com.  All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. All material represents the opinions of Mitch King. Investment recommendations may change without notice and readers are urged to check with their investment counselors before making any investment decisions. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. Mitch King and/or the staff at TradeStocksAmerica.com may or may not have investments in any stocks cited above before or after this newsletter is prepared. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice.

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