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Daily Stock Picks Newsletter from August 26th, 2008

I wanted to show you a few stocks that had a really good intraday trades today.  FNM, Fannie Mae, which has had a lot of volatility along with FRE, Freddie Mac.  This is FNM and is a three-minute chart with one day of data with the E*TRADE's chart system here. 

We are looking at these stochastics settings here and the MACD. Here's your turn right here those blue lines in a study called parabolic studies.  I will delete that right now so you won't be confused by those.  But here you can see that the moving average starts its turn... Here's the bottom of the stochastics both the K and the D right there. 

So if you click on the left mouse and you will see a crosshair.  Do you see those turning up and the MACD is crossing from the Green over the red line.  That is starting to turn up. That's your formal signal on a technical purchase.  I tend to look for the moving average flattening out and turning up and then the stochastics turning up and then I'm buying long but let's take a look at this from $5.22 to a high of $5.92.

Here is about 13 1/2 percent profit potential for one intraday trade.  Here is the sell signal and the moving averages turning over... the stochastics are turning down....  right here is where the MACD peaked and went down.  And there is your sell signal to sell long and go short and there is another 11% profit on the way down.

So those are real big number to see in intraday trades, we usually don't see that.  Usually 2 to3% is real good.  Let's take a look at a few others that I traded today.   Here is CNX, I was watching this go down and down and down for approximately 2 hours and then this group turned up.  It wasn't a real strong rebound but it did go from about $66 little under $66 and getting up to about $67 1/2 at $1.50 on a $67 stock and let's look at what percentage that is.  That is about 2.3% on that one.

Here's a couple of the coal stocks that were trading today.  The same thing-- it's from the energy group same thing that we do saw on CNX.   There's the turn there from $52.74 to about $54 so you're looking at almost 3% there.

Another coal stock, FCL, Foundation Coal, not a very strong bounce at all but you get the idea of letting these keep dropping and then look for the signals when they start turning.  There is a clear bottom in the MACD.... and turning up in the stochastics and the flattening and turning up with the moving average like we see in all of these charts. 

Here's the bullshort that I was talking about last week that I shorted too early, MITI.  I shorted a little bit more of the stock today and you can see it had a high of $7.64 then a drop down to $6.51.  That drop is about over a 16% range between the high and the low.  It looks like this is going to drop several more days to the mid to low $5s and that is where I am look at covering that short position depending on how the stock is acting.

This stock came from four dollars all the way to $7.50 based on some sort a recommendation from different analysts.  I found someone writing about the stock on SeekingAlpha.com and they were writing about the stock.  It was a guy who was promoting it so you don't really need to know who is promoting it or what the news is on some of these as long as you look for the technical indicators of increasing volume and increasing price.

Let it run its course just to be on the safe side and it turns down like a day like today you can pick your short sales.  Let's take a look at the intraday chart on this.  It had pretty much straight down hardly any rebounds.  This is clearly a weak stock right now and when the sentiment changes people will be wanting to take their profits.  When a stock goes down, it starts a little fear that they won't make as much as they did when the stock hit $7.84 premarket today. so worth as see the sentiment change and gradual and pretty a fairly sharp selling in the next few days and then when it gets down to that target price of somewhere around $5 to $5.25 right in there, I will be looking to cover it somewhere right in there.  We will just play it by ear. 

Here are a couple of banking stocks WFC.  We are seeing a lower low...we are seeing a trend there that we are probably going to see a downtrend like this angle.  Let's take a look at BAC, BankAmerica ... looks similar not a position I'm in.

Let's take a look at another one which is an industrial metals stock, a coal mining stock.  You can see that this trend line is really obvious in that it has held really well.  We are also seeing the same trend of lower lows and lower highs....it's very possible we can see this down there to $50 to $55 and possibly lower through time so we'll take a look and keep watching that.  I'll probably make a short position on this in IRA probably with a put option long of the stock and probably in October with a strike price of maybe $60-$65.

Let's take a look at a couple more that look similar.  Here is STP possible short position on this one.   Now as this market continues to go down looks like were seeing in the NASDAQ composite here a little bit of a pullback here.  Take a look at the Dow... it is correcting a little harder than the NASDAQ and we will start to look for some opportunities on this at especially if the volatility continues in the big sell off.  We dropped 241 points on the Dow and this is the kind of stuff that traders do really well the investing strategies the Motley investing models and strategies mutual funds holding long term are doing awful this year especially this past three or four months and they are down about 14% on the S&P and most of the mutual fund managers do not even beat or match the S&P performance.

So you know long term investors are not doing well.  The traders like us tend to do very well so I'm looking to hold off a little bit before we do too much swing trading long.  I will be doing some intraday trades as we get the volatility going and you can tell I've been short MITI several other stocks like these I've shown.

You have a good night and we'll talk tomorrow we'll be seeing more more ideas developed through this next week or so.


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