TR lesson 3-30-12

[06:41 am] Ed : reducing 1/2 VVUS long

[06:42 am] Ed : reduicng 1/4 VVUS long

[06:23 am] Brent : good morning

[06:24 am] Ed : good morning

[06:27 am] Brent : Mitch's Etrade and Room are not getting along. He has to login right after the open

[06:32 am] Brent : SINA moving

[06:32 am] Brent : watching ALTR for a short

[06:33 am] Brent : watching NIHD for a short

[06:34 am] Brent : watching TIBX for a bounce

[06:34 am] Ed : VVUS consolidating fo breakout

[06:35 am] Mitch K: monitoring VVUS for a top to short, wait longer than normal

[06:36 am] Mitch K: watching SOHU for top to short

[06:36 am] Mitch K: missed TUDO bottom but watching for a top0 to short, top of this bounce

[06:36 am] Mitch K: monitoring RIMM for a short

[06:38 am] Mitch K: watching AMLN for short

[06:38 am] Mitch K: IMGN more downside for short

[06:38 am] Mitch K: SOHU toppy

[06:38 am] Mitch K: watching IOC for bottom to buy

[06:39 am] Mitch K: watching WLT for multiple trades today, short and long

[06:39 am] Mitch K: TIBX bouncy

[06:39 am] Mitch K: watching TIBX for bottom to buy

[06:39 am] Brent : watchign BBY for a bounce

[06:39 am] Mitch K: watching GMCR for bottom to buy

[06:39 am] Mitch K: watching ABV for bottom to buy

[06:40 am] Mitch K: ESRX toppy here

[06:40 am] Mitch K: watching CREE for top to short

[06:40 am] Mitch K: watching FINL for bottom to buy, no hurry

[06:41 am] Mitch K: watching IOC to sell near 52+

[06:41 am] Mitch K: ESRX shortable

[06:42 am] Mitch K: watchign DISCA for top to short

[06:42 am] Mitch K: watching PNR for bottom to buy, bouncing now

[06:44 am] Mitch K: watching GILD for top to short

[06:44 am] Mitch K: FMCN turning over for short, more downside

[06:45 am] Mitch K: NLSN toppy here for short

[06:45 am] Mitch K: watching BAX for top to short

[06:45 am] Mitch K: watching for short in SBSA, advanced traders, low priced stock, higher risk

[06:46 am] Mitch K: consider selling IOC soon

[06:46 am] Mitch K: SOHU turning over

[06:46 am] Mitch K: VVUS toppy

[06:46 am] Mitch K: RIMM turning over

[06:46 am] Mitch K: TUDO turning over

[06:47 am] Ed : out all VVUS long

[06:47 am] Mitch K: watching PXD for top to short

[06:47 am] Mitch K: watching LPI for top to short

[06:47 am] Brent : watching VLO for a bounce

[06:48 am] Mitch K: watching MAT for bottom, Barbie fell out of bed

[06:48 am] Mitch K: watching LO for bottom to buy

[06:49 am] Mitch K: TIBX bouncing

[06:50 am] Mitch K: watching MCP for bottom to buy

[06:50 am] Mitch K: healthcare stocks repeating yesterday's action, moving up, watching for tops to short: AET, CI, WLP, HUM, UNH

[06:51 am] Mitch K: watching FL for bottom to buy

[06:51 am] Mitch K: LPI toppy

[06:51 am] Mitch K: consider covering IMGN short on this bottom soon

[06:52 am] Mitch K: watching GPS for bottom to buy

[06:52 am] Mitch K: watching DRIV for bottom to buy

[06:54 am] Mitch K: continue monitoring VVUS all day

[06:54 am] Mitch K: consider covering SOHU on THIS drop here soon

[06:54 am] Mitch K: consider covering half of VVUS or more

[06:54 am] Mitch K: consider covering RIMM

[06:55 am] Mitch K: SBSA toppy

[06:55 am] Mitch K: consider covering FMCN

[06:55 am] Mitch K: consider reducing most of PNR long

[06:55 am] Mitch K: for repeated trades

[06:56 am] Mitch K: consider covering your ESRX short on the NEXT bottom, soon; smart to gradually cover that as it drops, as usual

[06:56 am] Brent : YELP dropping fast

[06:57 am] Mitch K: consider reducing CREE if short

[06:57 am] Mitch K: consider covering WLT short and monitor for 2nd helping later well above 60+

[06:59 am] Mitch K: remember earlier comment on FINL, no hurry; reason was other retails dropping, gapped down and then headed down, odds increase exponentialy when you let these "disaster" stocks drop a lot; also time it with market indexes dropping too ideally

[07:00 am] Mitch K: when stock doesnt reach your target area, like IOC didnt hit $52 area i was looking for and it turns down, i sell that long and move on

[07:01 am] Mitch K: CREE has a little more downside but close to covering

[07:01 am] Mitch K: ESRX getting close to place to cover here real soon, probably good place to cover short

[07:02 am] Mitch K: i want to go over how to use these ideas being posted here

[07:02 am] Mitch K: want to give you a quick class today in 2 hours, 9am pacific time

[07:05 am] Mitch K: sell PNR long and consider short

[07:07 am] Mitch K: SBSA short idea not acting well for short, only gave 20 cents , tells me not many sellers

[07:07 am] Mitch K: should be watching your DISCA and GILD short for cover points

[07:08 am] Mitch K: watching NXPI for bottom to buy

[07:08 am] Mitch K: FINL bouncing

[07:08 am] Mitch K: should be out of SOHU short

[07:10 am] Mitch K: watching KORS drop, real good trading stock, volatile, big swings

[07:10 am] Mitch K: monitor APKT for bottom, may take awhile

[07:11 am] Mitch K: i think this was ipo this week,

[07:11 am] Mitch K: watching MM for bottom to buy

[07:11 am] Mitch K: and KORS is a real popular trading stock with traders now and you want to note those favorites; that list of trading stocks change, used to be GMCR, FSLR, many others in past

[07:12 am] Mitch K: still watching MCP for bottom, tends to be big swings

[07:14 am] Mitch K: i didnt want to wait for the lesson time in two hours, will be too late to show you these two charts

[07:14 am] Mitch K: ok, see these two charts, ESRX and DISCA

[07:15 am] Mitch K: when you are short a stock and the chart looks like this? you pay real close attention because they tend to do what ESRX is starting to do, which is bottom and rebound up so you want to grab your profits and move on to next stock chart


[07:15 am] Mitch K: ESRX good long here actually

[07:15 am] Mitch K: see this pattern? these scalps dont stay this way

[07:16 am] Mitch K: this is just something you have to memorize, like 2+2=4, all your multiplication tables. this chart pattern doesnt stay like this for very long

[07:16 am] Mitch K: this is etrade chart ive used power etrade for at least 8-10 years. i dont trade with them, i just use their charts

[07:18 am] Mitch K: its hard to go back in time, better to teach you in real time

[07:18 am] Mitch K: can i just make this our lesson, i have some other stocks to show you, lesson in real-time, ok?

[07:19 am] Mitch K: chart on left in black background

[07:19 am] Mitch K: now pull up NXPI

[07:20 am] Mitch K: ok let's move on to TUDO, chart will be on right

[07:20 am] Mitch K: this is going to a good long scalp at bottom. here is why: 1. stock came from 27 to approaching 26, 1 point on a $26 stock is almost 4% drop. 2) it has covered almost the full range of prices from y3sterday's high and low

[07:21 am] Mitch K: let me open this up,

[07:21 am] Mitch K: TUDO on right, chart in blue. mentioned earlier...... "[06:46 am] Mitch K: TUDO turning over"

[07:23 am] Mitch K: now normally, this is about what you would get in a short for a scalp on the TUDO chart, doesnt matter what stock it is, thats the pattern, the shape

[07:23 am] Mitch K: now this setting here i just did was etrades 1 min, Today setting, no past history from yesterday. i like to see their yesterday's chart too .

[07:24 am] Mitch K: and you make your final decision by a few other things like what the market is doing, how that particular stock is acting. THIs one is SLOW, molasses in winter time slow, so you can afford to go to another chart you have on your multiple screens and you place TUDO chart in a higher priority position on your screens.

[07:25 am] Mitch K: i mean higher priority so you can tell yourself, "OK i got to do something with this stock, like close it or open a position, whatever it is

[07:26 am] Mitch K: well, obvious answer is.... it stops going down

[07:26 am] Mitch K: ok lets answer Eddy's question, important question..... how do you know it has stopped going down

[07:28 am] Mitch K: and the buyers are now in charge so whoever is in charge at that moment is where the stock will go toward

[07:28 am] Mitch K: and it pauses, attempts a little rebound, sits there, hangs around BUT what you will find morning after morning, is they act the same. ANd that is they drop fast and hard, straight down, and stop, hang around and the shift is occuring from the sellers that outnumbered the buyers and they are done selling for the most part

[07:29 am] Mitch K: here is a picture of analogy that works perfectly for these scalps

[07:30 am] Mitch K: this balance shifts though with stocks as buyers and sellers are changing their positions and other group of people are coming in

[07:31 am] Mitch K: so your job is to make a snap decision based on looking at many of these in real time to start making a position. whether its long or short

[07:32 am] Mitch K: mentioned CREE this morning to watch for short. also mentioned at 640am to watch for ESRX top, and ESRX toppy

[07:34 am] Mitch K: when you see any chart doing whatever they are doing, in the case of these two on the right were both going up and we alerted before they topped or close to that top, and someone alerts you of a symbol........ you should not be saying and feeling "Oh, short at market or buy at market" in a panicky state of mind. you should move quickly though and make a limit order. it is all about price and getting best price.

[07:35 am] Brent : starting to watch COG for a bounce

[07:35 am] Mitch K: if it s a stock we are late to see, and maybe it has turned over already, you will often, most often get a little rebound to short into to get that better price i am talking about.

[07:36 am] Mitch K: in the meantime, you wasted your time and others about your bad entry, when you should be watching for other stocks coming down the pipeline for you to consider to open a position.

[07:36 am] Mitch K: what i see some of you guys do open a position at market price, it rebounds, you post your complaint on user chat and then eventually, it goes the direction we want.

[07:37 am] Mitch K: your goal is to work up to multiple positions, maybe 2,3,4,5 maybe even 8-10, which is challenging

[07:38 am] Mitch K: regarding someones comment just now about snap decision, i think was joey, or whoever, you build that snap decision judgement by looking at a lot of ideas. we have been posting what, 40-50 ideas in first 90 minutes most mornings, except for this weeks monday and tuesday morning. so you need to have a state of mind like there will be many ideas. when you new guys get emotional about a missed trade, just wait about 1 min and there will be another idea, esp during first 60-90 minutes.

[07:39 am] Mitch K: look how much time you got to decide to cover CREE or to buy CREE long if you missed the short earlier? thats a long time, and even a caveman can get most of these trades

[07:41 am] Mitch K: some of these dont work right? but did you notice that when you enter a stock, and it didnt work, you usually just tied up your money and lost a little or brokeeven, not much change right? you have to know that the losers are small UNLESS you didnt wait for the extreme end of where stock is going, meaning, you didnt wait for it to stop going down at all, you just bot on a down elevator. wait for a a stock to stop going down before you buy long

[07:42 am] Mitch K: not all stock charts look like that ESRX and what was that other one i showed

[07:42 am] Mitch K: or opposite, wait for stock to peak out, turn over a little and then consider shorting half of your position right there and another half after a little rebound

[07:45 am] Mitch K: ok GILD was something that moved slow to top. when i mentioned it, it just sat there and moved up slowly but with good volume. when you see that slow mover but still interesting chart developing, the chart pattern you have been seeing here every morning, just look for another stock while GILD developes. if you see GILD turn over, you chart it, you make 20 cents, it reverses, go ahead and close WITHOUT beating yourself up or saying stuff like, "Oh it sonly 20 cents." most of this business is managing yoru thoughts and attitudes, emotions, etc.

[07:46 am] Mitch K: so what it was only 20 cents, look for another one. this is like fishing, keep casting, keep fishing, knowing the biggest bite, or most activity is that first 90 nminutes and the remainder of the day is when you get some mid day big movers on occasion and you also monitor those earlier big movers for repeated scalps

[07:49 am] Mitch K: dont get frazzled; its like an Easter egg hunt with little kids, they get all excited but the youngest ones bend over to pick up another egg and spill more eggs out of their basket. try to hang on to your eggs

[07:52 am] Mitch K: only came out with 4 eggs

[07:52 am] Mitch K: this one was Ed when he was younger, he lost his basket too

[07:54 am] Mitch K: as well as CREE

[07:54 am] Mitch K: see how NXPI moved up while we talked,

[07:54 am] Mitch K: thats my lesson for the day

[07:54 am] Mitch K: this process and state of mind is really important for you no matter what type of trading it is, day trading stocks or futures, or swing trading, same with any technique

[07:55 am] Mitch K: it is what i call a "trade failure"

[07:55 am] Mitch K: ok jolliffboy, on FINL, when it bounced, off 21.50, wentup 30-40 cents, dropped and thenr ebounded a little higher to around 22.05, thendropped again? dont ride it back down to your buy point

[07:56 am] Mitch K: why let it drop from 22.05 down to 21.46. it already dropped from 25.25 to 21.50 area or about 17-18%, so you know its really weak already. and if it bounces up and then turns over early, go ahead and close that long

[07:57 am] Mitch K: instead of ......... hoping it goes to 22.50

[07:58 am] Mitch K: ok joliff, when a stock goes lower like FINL has, i look for something else, you can find 30-40 ideas most mornings

[07:58 am] Mitch K: the CREE trade here from 31.10 to 31.60, nice move, nothign wrong with 30-40 cents of that on a $31 stock, over 1%, bonus money at this point or spouse money, whatever you call it. you have plenty of time with most of these to decide what to do. unless you get locked up and have a bunch of other destructive thoughts in your head

[07:59 am] Mitch K: full basket, now being careful

[07:59 am] Mitch K: yes you can monitor it but i scan very quickly first 90 minutes and most of my profits are booked by then, then i want to be like this girl here in picture

[08:00 am] Mitch K: dont be like this kid

[08:01 am] Mitch K: ok, real time lesson still going.... what does CREE look like to you?

[08:01 am] Mitch K: did anyone go long CREE?

[08:02 am] Mitch K: no red candles, hasnt turned over from this rebound

[08:02 am] Mitch K: still moving up right?

[08:02 am] Mitch K: snap picture, what is it doing?

[08:03 am] Mitch K: there is first red candle onesignal chart on left

[08:03 am] Mitch K: look for short

[08:03 am] Mitch K: no way eddy, would not buy now, its ready for short soon

[08:04 am] Mitch K: so you dont shoot your whole ammo here on one trade, ease into in maybe 3rds, 1/3rd now, 1'3rd a higher price and maybe last 1/3rd after it confirmed going down

[08:04 am] Mitch K: stopped going up, odds are very good this comes back down to 31.50 area

[08:04 am] Mitch K: red candle on black chart too

[08:05 am] Mitch K: another thing you will notice and should remember is CREE was up after the open so it is bullish right there, and i like these because when they drop and then rebound, they are usually strong, people liked it early didnt they? so something or some news is driving it to be bullish.

[08:06 am] Mitch K: which in CREEs case has been more than 50%

[08:06 am] Mitch K: and these tend to have a stronger bounce, maybe even 50% of the drop it made earlier

[08:07 am] Mitch K: CREE isnt a runaway freight train like that AMLN stock was the other day or even VVUS late yesterday

[08:08 am] Mitch K: watcghiung IMGN drop, short earlier, consider covering and watch for a long entry

[08:08 am] Brent : FMX moving

[08:08 am] Mitch K: most of these stocks that you short on the top of the rebound are really good for a smaller profit. and how much do you lose here, how much drawdown do you have IF you wait for them to stop going up and then turn over a little? not much

[08:09 am] Mitch K: still watching IOC

[08:10 am] Mitch K: if you see a hot rebound like CREE is starting to act like, and they approach that mornings high, see if it goes over that first high. that is a conservative rule if the rebound is close to the first high

[08:12 am] Mitch K: be back in 20 minm

[08:22 am] Mitch K: a general rule is set a stop on a shrot if new highs of the day are made and many traders buy long on new highs as a technique,

[08:22 am] Mitch K: ok CREE was one of the few that exceeded the first high and the conservative approach is to see if a stock exceeds that first high before shorting and best to see it turn over more than that one candle before shorting and try to short on the rebound

[08:24 am] Mitch K: NXPI turning over, consider selling that long

[08:24 am] Mitch K: so the 31.82 area that was initial short can be covered when over a round number like over $32, for a 18-20 cent loss or over 32.20 which is new high

[08:25 am] Mitch K: global payments

[08:25 am] Mitch K: watching GPN drop

[08:25 am] Mitch K: the IMGN long gave 40 cent bounce on $14 stock, looks weak to me, consider selling

[08:26 am] Mitch K: obviously some bad news

[08:28 am] Mitch K: if you get stopped out on a stock, like on CREE for example, DON'T FORGET ABOUT THEM, KEEP WATCHING FOR BETTER ENTRY

[08:32 am] Mitch K: IOC bouncing up

[08:34 am] Mitch K: this kind of news tends to have a big bounce, it isnt like a big earnings miss

[08:34 am] Mitch K: GPN getting interesting, looks bouncy here

[08:35 am] Mitch K: you arent talking about the kind of news that BBY had, Best buy, closing stores, lost 1.4 bil, etc. this is a rumor type and tends to have a good rebound IF there is a large drop. this has only had 4 point drop on a $52 stock

[08:38 am] Mitch K: FINL perking up

[08:39 am] Mitch K: you dont just give up on an idea just because you stopped or sold at loss, it is still worth watching for. many people reverse and go short on new low

[08:39 am] Mitch K: you watch that bounce and if it turns over you have to treat it like "trade failure" and consider selling and then watch for another entry jsn13

[08:40 am] Mitch K: i would watch how GPN acts at $45 level

[08:41 am] Mitch K: looks like this is going to be a good bounce here, beginning, try for limit lower

[08:41 am] Mitch K: no jsn13, just part of some trades,

[08:41 am] Mitch K: what we dont see yet is an increasing volume but it isnt required to be a good scalp long

[08:42 am] Mitch K: but you can have multiple trades if you are experienced and have right platform

[08:42 am] Mitch K: id look for 47.50 area as a target

[08:42 am] Mitch K: looks strong bounc eis setting up though

[08:42 am] Mitch K: if GPN bounces nicely, $47.50-48 area is possible; depends on what that news event details

[08:43 am] Mitch K: OR you open the etrade chart up on a TODAY setting

[08:43 am] Mitch K: for the detail

[08:43 am] Mitch K: i look at the type of char ton the left

[08:43 am] Mitch K: but you cant do this on most of these big firms platforms that charge $20 round trip commission.

[08:44 am] Mitch K: looking for over 48 now

[08:44 am] Mitch K: or 4ths if i built a larger position

[08:44 am] Mitch K: so right here i change order screen to be able to sell in 3rds

[08:44 am] Mitch K: i use both charts actually

[08:45 am] Mitch K: should move up looks like less will trend toward less sellers but be prepared to sell gradually at limit order prices, no panic sells needed

[08:45 am] Mitch K: but you sell if you get signals may not make it,

[08:46 am] Mitch K: sell above offer price, will usually fill

[08:47 am] Mitch K: but as soon as it breaks above, i hold

[08:47 am] Mitch K: stick at 47.35 area here, so i get a little red flag going on in my head, just a little one

[08:47 am] Mitch K: which would be 47.44 area, new highs is what you want to decide to hold on to longs longer

[08:47 am] Mitch K: now what you want to do is see if it makes higher highs than the last 3 candles including this one

[08:48 am] Mitch K: going over 48 now

[08:48 am] Mitch K: ok there hyou go with higher high

[08:49 am] Mitch K: which is a sell

[08:49 am] Mitch K: stochastics are turning over

[08:49 am] Mitch K: now that it broke above that 47.44 area that last 4 candles made, i just let it ride and hold long although still weak looking

[08:50 am] Mitch K: now you look for higher high than 2 candles ago

[08:50 am] Mitch K: a lot of this event is all news driven, if you get a denial by Mastercard, GPN goes way up or even denial from GPN but companies try to avoid talking

[08:51 am] Mitch K: whats the halt code?

[08:51 am] Mitch K: what kind of halt brent?

[08:51 am] Brent : GPN halted

[08:51 am] Mitch K: and if you see it break through, can really accelerate to the upside

[08:52 am] Mitch K: which is news pending

[08:52 am] Brent : news pending

[08:52 am] Mitch K: It is a T-1 halt code

[08:53 am] Mitch K: keep this as favorite for halt information

[08:53 am] Mitch K: http://www.nasdaqtrader.com/Trader.aspx?id=Tradehalts

[08:56 am] Mitch K: look for CREE if breaks below $32

[08:56 am] Mitch K: consider selling IOC long

[09:03 am] Mitch K: CREE broke below $32

[08:10 am] Mitch K: even though you might be down 8-10 cents on this CREE short now, odds are good it drops in next hour or so

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